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Western Mass Covid-19 data

This page is no longer being updated. See now this article for more details and newer numbers, and Brendan O’Connor’s automatically updated longitudinal comparisons of all 4 Western Mass counties with other areas at http://brenocon.com/covid/wmass.pdf

These charts show 7-day totals ending the week noted on the horizontal axis. Raw data downloaded from https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting. Because of changes in the way data were reported, numbers before Aug. 19th have been adjusted/estimated (see note at the end).

For projections and r-values, see this project at Columbia University: https://cuepi.shinyapps.io/COVID-19/.

County, 7 day total new cases to Nov. 8, R:

Hampshire, 139, 1.23

Hampden, 997, 1.54

Note on pre-August 19 data

On August 12th, the MassDPH changed the way they were reporting county data. They previously included probable and confirmed cases; starting Aug. 12th they included only confirmed. This resulted in a drop in the total number of cases (see below for examples). They also temporarily stopped reporting daily data, resuming again on Aug. 19th. To make these graphs, I therefore had to estimate the daily data from Aug. 12th through the 18th, and I also scaled the pre-Aug. 12th data so that it is an estimate of the confirmed cases alone. The details on how I did this are below:

Hampshire

8/11 5 daily, 1184 probable and confirmed

8/12 1070 confirmed

8/19 9 daily, 1107 total confirmed

Therefore, 8/18 1098 total confirmed

Estimated daily count 8/13 – 8/18: 28/6

Estimated 8/12 daily: also 28/6

Estimated daily confirmed prior to 8/12: Count * ((1070 – 28/6) / 1184) 

Hampden 

8/11 18 daily, 7637 probable and confirmed

8/12  7367 confirmed

8/19 12 daily, 7482 total confirmed

Therefore, 8/18 7470 total confirmed

Estimated daily count 8/13 – 8/18: 103/6

Estimated 8/12 daily: also 103/6

Estimated daily confirmed prior to 8/12: Count * ((7367- 103/6) / 7637)